Predictions for the relegation of the Premier League season: The newly promoted team may fall collectively

When Liverpool and Bournemouth opened the 2025-26 Premier League season at Anfield, the relegation alarms of three newly promoted Leeds United, Sunderland and Burnley were sounded in advance. Data shows that the newly promoted teams have been collectively relegated in the past two seasons, and this cruel rule this season may continue - Opta's survival probability model gives the three teams an average relegation success rate of only 28.7%. Especially Sunderland was 24 points behind the other two newly promoted teams last season. The 32-year-old Zachar, who was invested to introduce, became the only signing team with Premier League experience. This lineup construction strategy was called "a dangerous gambling for the English champion thinking" by the Times.

Wolves and Brentford form the second tier of the relegation candidate. The latter lost core teams this summer, including coach Frank. StatsBomb data shows that its number of high-pressures will plummet from 18.3 times per game last season to 12.1 times during the new coach Eriksson coaching Feyenoord. Wolves continue to face the constraints of the Financial Fairness Act. After "Sports Network" revealed that it was forced to sell Nunes, its midfield interception success rate has dropped to the bottom of the Premier League. Although Crystal Palace may lose core points such as Eze, as there is a saying: "The law of survival in the Premier League has never been better than who is stronger, but who is less bad than who is better ". Leeds United may be the most resistant among the newly promoted teams. Under the 4-2-3-1 system, Harrison's 2.3 key passes every 90 minutes are the top in the English Championship. But just like the "Second Grade Curse" encountered by Sheffield United coach Warnock in 2007, when the opponent understands the tactical routine, this single mode that relies on the wing points is often difficult to sustain in the Premier League. The author observed the preseason and found that after Burnley goalkeeper Trafford left the team, the decision-making error rate of the new goalkeeper in the face of a cross was as high as 21%, which may become the last straw that broke the camels.