The peak offensive and defensive showdown! Mito won 8 consecutive games and won the championship with firepower, Tokushima s away record is facing the ultimate test

1. Point ranking and recent status

Mito Hollyhock (home team, 1st in the league)

record: 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, 41 points, leading the way for Japanese B with a goal difference.

Recent status:

8 consecutive league wins, 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 10 games, and has a strong dominance on both offense and defense (scoring 19 goals and conceding 7 goals).

Unbeaten at home: 7 wins and 4 draws in 11 games, with a winning rate of 64%, and averaging only 0.64 goals per game, winning all the last 4 home games and 3 games in clean sheets.

Core driving force: Forward Shinta Watanabe (9 goals and 5 assists in 20 games) leads the scorer list, and Kubo Seichiro Kubo (scoring in the last two substitutes) provides substitute firepower.

Tokushima Uzumaki (visit team, 5th in the league)

record: 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, 36 points, only 2 points from the upgrade zone.

Recent status:

The King of Defensive Away: 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in 10 games, conceded 0.4 goals per game (best in the league), won all away games in the last 4 away games and scored zero.

Unbeaten in the last 6 games: 4 wins and 2 draws, scored 14 goals and conceded 6 goals, and had a balanced offense and defense.

Tactical cornerstone: Brazilian center Barcelos (7 goals and 2 assists in 18 games) has a prominent role in the fulcrum, and the central defender Ryosuke Matsumura and Kise Ueda have a success rate of 68%.

2. Tactical game and key counterattacks

Mito Hollyhock: control the ball and oppress the edge and the middle combination

formation: 4231, relying on Watanabe Shinta's front midfielder connection, and the winger cuts inward to create murderous intent.

Advantages: 58% of the home ball possession rate, and 25% of the set ball scores (15 crosses per game).

Hidden danger: High-level defense line is easily beaten behind by long passes; right back guard Murata Yasuhiro was injured and his substitute depth was insufficient.

Tokushima Uzumaki: Quick counterattack plus defensive toughness

Formation: 433, using winger Yu Jun's speed to tear the defense line, counterattack goals account for 30%.

Advantages: The regional joint defense plus man-marking system is mature, with a away free lock rate of 67%; set ball defense is efficient (the lowest goal conced rate in the league).

Risk: The heavy midfielder is also very poor and has no injuries that affects the offense and defense conversion, and the ability to break through positions is weak.

3, Historical Confrontation and Psychological Game

The last 10 matches: Mito won 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, and a 1-0 away game in the first leg of this season.

Mito has played Tokushima in the last 4 home games: 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, but Tokushima's four consecutive away wins and zero blocks have formed a hedge.

4. Injury impact and lineup depth

Mito hollyhock injury missing player:

Umeda Kuito (Achilles tendon rupture) Position: Forward impact: Front rotation weakened

Murata Yoichi (Cale injury) Position: Midfielder impact: Right offense and defense limited

Tokushima Uzumaki Uzumaki missing player:

Yamaguchi Ryuya (hamstring injury) Position: Defender impact: Left defense tight

Takuya Shimamura (hand injury) Position: Midfield impact: Midfield depth weakened

Key tips: Mito's insufficient substitute on the front line may affect later physical fitness, Tokushima's midfield injury may amplify counterattack loopholes.

5. Winning and losing hands and score prediction

Three key game points:

1. Mito ball control and suppression vs Tokushima defensive counterattack: If Mito's high-level defense line was broken by Tokushima's long pass (such as Barcelona's fulcrum to cooperate with the wing), the away team is expected to score.

2. Settings ball offense and defense: Mito set pieces score rate is 25% vs Tokushima's high-altitude top-square success rate is 68%. This link may determine the outcome.

3. Midfield control: Tokushima's midfield injury weakens the stability of pass control. If Mito controls the rhythm through Shinta Watanabe, he may suppress his opponent.

Forecast reference:

Mito gave up a level at home, and he was not very optimistic about Mito. After all, Tokushima is currently the king of defense in Japan and B away, and this game will definitely bring some heat to Tokushima. This is a match between the king of offensive home against the king of defensive away. I personally prefer Mito. The few bites behind are tight, and if you are not careful, you will fall behind. Mito should not lose the chain, but he is also worried about the possibility of a draw. I looked at Tokushima's four games failed this season, and none of them were broken through. It is recommended to go one step and get the right one, which is relatively safe.