World Cup play-off draw announced: Italy at the top, Iraq at the bottom?

Written by Han Bing On November 19, the World Cup play-off draw results were released. Italy, which has been committed to the play-offs for three consecutive World Cups, got the draw. In the semi-finals, it faced Northern Ireland (69th), the lowest ranked team in the fourth pot, at home, and in the final away game against Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina. The situation is similar to 4 years ago, but the opponent is weaker. Among the two seeded teams in the intercontinental play-offs, compared to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq's signings are worse. Whether Asia can gather 9 teams in the World Cup deserves attention.

The 16 teams in the European play-offs are divided into 4 groups, and 4 qualifying places will be generated through the semi-finals and finals. The games will be played on March 26 and 31 next year, and the home games will be decided by draws. The play-offs are divided into four pots. Italy, Denmark, Turkey and Ukraine, which are the highest ranked teams in the world, are the seeded teams. The semi-finals will face the teams in the fourth pot, which reduces the probability of the seeded teams being upset.

Just like 4 years ago, Italy has the highest ranking in the world (No. 12), and the semi-final draws Northern Ireland, the lowest ranked team in the fourth pot. It is also similar to the draw of North Macedonia (No. 67), the lowest unseeded team 4 years ago. Moreover, if Italy defeats Northern Ireland at home, the final opponents Wales (No. 32) or Bosnia and Herzegovina (No. 71) will be far less powerful than Portugal (No. 8) or Türkiye (No. 37) 4 years ago.

Italian coach Gennaro Gattuso is full of confidence, but does not underestimate the enemy: "Northern Ireland has strong physical fitness and tenacious willpower. We must go all out. Italy's problem is not tactics, but trying to avoid making mistakes like in the group stage." The Italian media called it preparations for the play-offs. The Italian Football Association intends to suspend at least one round of Serie A before the semi-finals on March 26 next year to allow at least one week to prepare. However, the Serie A schedule is tight and temporary changes are very difficult. Turkish coach Montella, who also participated in the play-offs, also called for a timeout to allow Türkiye to better prepare for the game.

In Italy's last 8 games against Northern Ireland, it has 6 wins and 2 draws and is undefeated. It has zero opponents in the past 7 games and has won all 7 home games in history. Northern Ireland conceded only 6 goals in 6 games in this qualifying group stage. However, since losing 2-0 to Italy in an away game in March 2021, Northern Ireland has only 1 win, 1 draw and 13 losses in 15 away games against traditional strong teams. It was only in March last year that it was undefeated in away games against Scotland and Romania.

However, people will not forget that four years ago, Italy lost 0-1 at home against North Macedonia, which was undefeated in two games in team history, and was not even qualified to enter the final against Portugal.

If Italy misses the 2026 World Cup, it will not only be the longest Italian team has missed the World Cup, but it will also affect the hosting of the 2032 European Cup. Therefore, Italy cannot afford to lose in this play-off.

The intercontinental play-offs will be held on March 23 and 31 next year, in Monterrey and Guadalajara, Mexico. This is the first time since the 1962 World Cup that the intercontinental play-offs have been held in one country. It is also the second time after the 1994 World Cup that the intercontinental play-offs have two knockout rounds. The 6 participating teams are divided into 2 groups. The 2 non-seeded teams will play in the semi-finals first. The winner will compete with the seeded team for 2 qualifying places.

In the intercontinental play-off draw, the seeded team Iraq entered the "Group of Death" after the fourth stage of the Asian play-offs - the Asian play-offs. Iraq was in the same group as the host Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, which is dominated by naturalized players from the Netherlands. In the intercontinental play-offs, they are in the same group as Bolivia in South America and Suriname in Central and North America. Mexico is almost half home to Bolivia and Suriname, both in the Latin American region. Suriname is even worse than Indonesia. Basically the entire team is made up of naturalized players from the Netherlands.

On March 23 next year, Suriname will play Bolivia first, and the winner will play Iraq on March 31. The biggest advantage for Iraq is that it has advantages in schedule and physical fitness. The FIFA Arab Cup in Qatar on December 3 will be an important warm-up match for Iraq to prepare for the competition.

In November, Bolivia lost to South Korea 0-2 and Japan 0-3 in the warm-up. There is a gap with the top teams in Asia. In the round of 18, Iraq lost 2-3 away to South Korea. In recent years, it has had 1 draw and 1 loss in warm-up matches with Ecuador and Colombia in South America. It has only conceded a total of 1 goal against the second and third pass-through teams in South America. Judging from the comparison from the air, Iraq is not far behind.

In the 1978 World Cup intercontinental play-offs, Bolivia defeated Hungary 2-9 in two rounds and was eliminated. In the previous intercontinental play-offs, South American teams played against Asian, Central and North American teams four times. Uruguay qualified twice, while Paraguay and Peru lost. Asia has played against teams from South America and Central and North America four times, with Australia qualifying twice and Bahrain (2006) and Jordan (2014) losing in a row. Iraq hopes to return to the World Cup after 40 years and end the West Asian team's losing streak in the intercontinental play-offs.

In the other group of the intercontinental play-offs, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been drawn. New Caledonia will play against Jamaica first. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is waiting for work and is expected to return to the World Cup after 52 years since 1974. This is the first time an African team has participated in the intercontinental play-offs. The Central and North American teams have 3 wins and 4 losses in the previous seven intercontinental play-offs. Caribbean teams have only participated once, when Trinidad and Tobago defeated Bahrain (2006). This time, two teams from Central and North America are participating, looking forward to making history.