【ai Intelligence】3 strings: Real Betis physical fitness is a big problem, Barcelona is currently in a stable state (with sweeping)

Thursday 001 La Liga Vallecano vs Real Betis

Match time: 2025-05-16 01:00

Core win-loss logic

Betis offensive suppression vs Vallecano's defense line loophole

Betis averaged 1.9 goals per game (19 goals in the last 10 games) against Vallecano's last 6 games and conceded 3 goals + defense line, which is likely to form a crush.

Vallecano's conservative tactics may temporarily limit Betis, but the lack of resistance to pressure on the defense (especially set-piece defense) may be difficult to maintain the entire game.

Strong away vs. weak home games

Betis' away winning rate is 66% (6 wins in 9 games), while Vallecano has only won 1 in the last 6 home games, with one rising and the other falling, Betis has the advantage.

Vallecano has a clear disadvantage in the confrontation (1 win in the last 10 games), and is at a disadvantage in the psychological level.

Score and strategy suggestions

Most preferred: Real Betis wins (odds 1.90-2.10), the score tends to be 2-1, 3-1.

Risk hedging: Consider the total goals ≥3 (big 2.5 goals, odds 1.80-1.95), avoiding the risk of Betis' defense conceding.

Unpopular Warning: If Vallecano successfully defends his life, he will defend a 1-1 draw (opportunities 6.00+), the probability is about 20%.

Data reinforcement conclusion

Indicators

Vallecano

Real Betis

Average goals conceded by 6 games in the last 6 games

1.8 goals

1.3 goals

The winning rate of the last 10 games

10% (1 win)

50% (5 wins)

Key offensive data

9.2 shots

13.6 shots

Final conclusion

Real Betis' chance of winning away games

The probability of winning away games

The probability of winning games(total goals ≥3) is 60%. It is recommended to give priority to Betis' victory + big ball combination. If Betis gives more than -0.75 on the spot, he can turn to Betis -1 goal draw (high-loss options such as 2-1, 3-2, etc.).

Thursday 002 La Liga Osasuna VS Atletico Madrid

Match time: 2025-05-16 01:00

Core win and loss logic

Atletico Madrid offensive and defensive suppression vs Osasuna's defense line hidden dangers

Atletico Madrid offensive firepower: 60 goals in 36 games in the league (1.67 goals per game), facing Osasuna's defense line that conceded 17 goals in the last 10 games, the probability of scoring is extremely high.

Osasuna counterattack depends on: relying on Budimir's personal ability (3 goals in the last 5 games), but the team's pass success rate is only 78%, and it is difficult to continue to threaten when facing Atletico Madrid's high-pressure pressing.

Historical confrontation crush and tactical restraint

Atletico Madrid has won 9 wins and 1 loss in the last 10 confrontations, and Simeone's winning rate against Osasuna is over 60%, and there are double suppression of psychology and tactics.

Osasuna's set piece tactics may become a breakthrough (Atlanie Madrid set piece defensive loophole), but Atletico Madrid's overall defense is stable (per game conceded 0.75 goals).

Score and strategy suggestions

Most preferred: Atletico Madrid win (odds 1.70-1.85), the score tends to be 2-0, 2-1.

Risk hedging: Considering the total goals ≥2.5 (big 2.5 goals, odds 1.80-1.95), Atletico Madrid's offense is efficient and Osasuna's defense is unstable.

Unpopular warning: If Atletico Madrid slows down + Osasuna scores a set piece, defends a 1-1 draw (odds 4.50+), the probability is about 25%.

Comparison of key data

Osasuna

Atletic Madrid

Average goals per game

1.67 goals

1.67 goals

10.9 goals

Historical confrontation winning rate

10% (1 win)

90% (9 wins)

Final conclusion

Atletic Madrid's probability of winning away games is 70%, and the total goal is ≥2.5 probability of 65%. The combination of Atletic Madrid wins + big balls is preferred. If Atletico Madrid concessions exceed -1 goal on the spot, they can bet on Osasuna +1 win (defense 1 goal and small win).

Predictive score: Atletico Madrid 2-0 or 2-1 Osasuna.

Thursday 006 La Liga Espanyol vs Barcelona

Match time: 2025-05-16 03:30

Core win-loss logic

Barcelona offensive crush vs Espanyol's defense line loophole

Barcelona offensive firepower: 10 consecutive goals (average of ≥2 goals), facing Espanyol's defense line that has lost all the goals in the last 4 games, it is likely to be suppressed.

Espanyol's home offensive: scored 10 consecutive games at home, but the defense was loose (the average goal conceded ≥1.5 per game in the last 4 games), which may be difficult to resist Barcelona's efficient forward line (Lewandow, Yamal, etc.).

Historical confrontations and psychological suppression

Barcelona has won 9 wins and 1 loss in the last 10 matches, with significant psychological advantages; Espanyol has lost three consecutive times in recent days and has a sluggish morale.

Barcelona has been unbeaten in 7 games in the past 7 games (5 wins and 2 draws), and is in a stable state and has a stronger tactical execution than its opponents.

Score and strategy suggestions

Most preferred: Barcelona wins (opposses 1.35-1.50), the score tends to be 2-1, 3-1.

Risk hedging: Choose to have a total goal of ≥3 (big 2.5 goals, odds of 1.60-1.75). Both sides have opened offenses in the near future and have hidden dangers in defense.

Unpopular Warning: If Barcelona's defense continues to be sluggish, defend a 2-2 draw (opposses 11.00+), the probability is about 15%..

Comparison of key data

Espanyol

Barcelona

Average goals conceded by 3}

1.8 goals

1.2 goals

Home offensive stability

10 consecutive goals

10% (1 win)

90% (9 wins)

Finish conclusion

Barcelona has a 75% chance of winning away games, a 70% probability of winning results (total goals ≥3), and a priority is given to Barcelona win + big ball combination. If Barcelona handicaps exceed -1.5 on the spot, they can bet on Espanyol +1.5 wins (defense 1 goal and wins).

Predicted score: Barcelona 3-1 or 2-1 Espanyol.

Note: The article is only the initial view, and the time is earlier due to the change of data