0-2 Losing to the Thunder! Can the Timberwolves win a game at home? Su Qun gave the answer

On May 23, the Timberwolves played against the Thunder. When the score was frozen at 103-118 and the Timberwolves lost 0-2, the whole team had no way out. The script that collapsed in the third quarter for two consecutive games exposed not only physical fitness problems, but also the shortcomings of the tactical system. Back at home, the Timberwolves, can this young team with a defensive foothold to win a game? Su Qun gave the answer:

After comparing the game data, it is not difficult to draw the following conclusion:

1. The Thunder scored 58:44 in the three-second zone. There is a difference behind this. The one-off and one-defense combination of Thunder Homgren and Hartten can not only build a barrier under the basket, but also open up space by holding the ball offense.

2. The Timberwolf Gobert's frame protection was completely locked by the Thunder's targeted tactics. He could not score independently, but also blocked Edwards' breakthrough route. The offensive system is overly dependent on "double-star singles + Gobert eats cakes ".

3. When the Thunder cut off the passing route and forced Edwards to make a strong shot from mid-range, the team's offensive efficiency plummeted. The Thunder tear the defense line again and again with Alexander's unsolved mid-range shot and Williams' misplaced singles.

Su Qun's three breakthrough strategies:

1. Reed came on the court to activate the five foreign lineup

Although Reed made 0 of 12 three-pointers in the first two games, his 37.5% regular season three-point shooting percentage is still a deterrent. Replacing Gobert with him can not only transfer the Thunder's inside out of the penalty area, but also clear the track for Edwards' breakthrough. Even if the feel is not good, the value of the space is far better than that of Gobert's standing-up presence.

2. Transmission Conley controls the rhythm to avoid a third quarter crash

Veteran Conley only has 4 assists in the first two games, far lower than the average 6.3 times in the playoffs. The Timberwolves need him to transform into a metronome, stabilize his position during the Thunder's fast break, increase the mid-range jump shot after pick-and-roll, or can break the Thunder's contraction defense.

3. Use the home court to give the Thunder a sense of urgency in defensive intensity

The Timberwolves' home winning rate in the regular season reaches 78%. If the full-game pressing in the final quarter of G2 can be continued, the long-arm lineup can be used to create mistakes and counterattack, or the miracle of reversing the Nuggets in the second round can be reproduced.

The secret correlation between Gobert's usage rate and victory and loss

A set of data reveals the truth: When Gobert was present, the Timberwolves' offensive efficiency was only 108.3, and it rose to 116.5 after the game. The net efficiency value of -12.2 is at the bottom of the team, confirming the embarrassment of "the defensive gate becomes a burden to the offensive". What's more subtle is that the Thunder's defensive efficiency dropped by 4.7% against the five small lineups this season, which is exactly the Timberwolves' breakthrough.

In contrast, the Thunder, the real shooting percentage of the Homegren series reached 67.3%, of which the shooting percentage from the jump shot was 51%, perfectly interpreting the value of a modern space-type inside line. If the Timberwolves continue to let Gobert face him, it is tantamount to attacking his strengths with his own shortcomings. There have been precedents in the reversal scripts in

NBA history has had 0-2 turnovers, 4 times in the past five years. The Bucks vs. Suns in 2021 and the Heat vs. Celtics in 2023 were both rebounding at home after losing streak away. The Timberwolves fight back and forth, either rewrite history or become the target center of history on May 27, and is destined to witness a duel that has been recorded in history. For the Timberwolves, this is not only a tactical game, but also a psychological nirvana. Putting aside your dependence on Gobert and trusting Reed's three-pointer, Conley's experience, and McDaniels' vitality may be able to tear open the Thunder's steel defense line. At least you have to win one game, so you can't let others get 3-0.