A year of dim stars? Rearranged the 2024 draft: Castle No. 1 pick, second place drops to 11th

It is always worth reevaluating the rookie draft of the previous year after the NBA season ends every year.

It's time to re-evaluate the 2024 NBA Draft. To some extent, this could be a somewhat stupid rearrangement, as we still lack the full information of these players’ careers. We basically put together a picture of their future career based on their first year performance in the professional arena. Considering that many players are just over 20 years old, we still need to make a lot of predictions.

However, information over the year is very important for the evaluation process. This is not a capricious rearrangement; it is just to speculate on what we know now that might happen in the future. No one will be judged for a player’s performance in his rookie year. So it makes a lot of sense to see which players are the most impressive as they enter their second year of their career and which players I still look forward to.

From a level perspective, it was the worst rookie since the 2016-17 season, when Brogdon won Rookie of the Year. This also matches the overall rating of the players of this class before the draft, where I didn’t put any players in the first or second tier in my draft rating, which are usually reserved for those who are expected to be All-Stars. In fact, in this class, I still don't see any player with a great chance of reaching the All-Star level. There is no doubt that there will always be someone doing this. Even in the 2000 NBA draft recognized as the worst in the past 25 years, Michael Reed, Kenyon Martin and Jamal McGrolle were each selected as the All-Star. However, it is still difficult to bet on any player in this class to reach this level.

I do not recommend that you take these rankings too seriously, they are just a snapshot of the current one. There is still a lot to continue to develop. While I don't think there are many players here who can securely start the starting position, I believe some rookies from last year can become reliable rotation players. From this perspective, this class of players looks quite in-depth. Normally, the number of people who can become rotation players in a draft ranges from about 20 to 25. Although I am skeptical of the high potential of some players, I expect the 2024 rookies to reach a high level in the number of rotation players.

Without further ado, let's start re-arrangement of the draft:

No. 1: Castle (Spurs)

Actual ranking: 4

Castle won the Rookie of the Year Award, deserved it. His performances were ups and downs at the beginning of the season, sometimes outstanding and sometimes slightly inferior. However, Castle has been very good since early March until the end of the season. In the last 25 games, he averaged 19.3 points, 5.6 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game, shot 46% from the field and received six free throws per game. During this time, he took the ball more frequently and demonstrated excellent passing and organizing skills while maintaining his defensive attitude that was favored from the beginning.

6 feet 6 inches (about 1.98 meters) and 215 pounds (about 97 kg), Castle has excellent physical conditions and has begun to learn how to use his physical strength to play. His rhythm and calm performance in the pick-and-roll is impressive. Ultimately, his cap depends on whether he can score continuously and efficiently. We know he can pass the ball and make decisions quickly, and we know he is a tough defender who can defend any position, but his shot needs improvement. His three-point shooting percentage last season was only 28.5%, and his shooting performance was not ideal.

If I were asked to bet on a player in the 2024 class who could reach the All-Star level, I would choose him. However, considering Castle is on the same side as Fox and Dylan Harper at the Spurs, I doubt he will get a long-term chance of holding the ball. In any case, Castle has proven himself at the University of Connecticut that he can be the key to winning the team in any role, because he has a natural understanding and ability to use the sense of space. He is able to think quickly and react to the surrounding situation faster, putting himself in a favorable position. His basketball IQ is very high, and even if his shooting has not improved, I believe he will be the kind of non-shot player who can make an impact in the playoff series.

No. 2: Rissache (Hawks)

Actual Pick: No. 1 pick

His performance at the beginning of the season did not attract much attention until his outstanding performance in the last few games and finally ranked second in the Rookie of the Year selection. Simply put, he is a player with a high ball quotient off the ball and can become a threat to score once he has the chance. His three-point shooting percentage is close to 36%, and his shooting percentage is also very stable in the interior.

He has a natural sense of keenness to dangerous areas on the court, often creating threats to defenders by cutting in or moving outside the three-point line. He has a very good grasp of the timing of the empty cut and can always observe the defender's movements, so he chooses the right time to run a backward layup or move to the wing. On the defensive end, although he is not particularly destructive, he is willing to rotate and make up for defense, has a good understanding of the position of the court, knows where he should appear, and has a certain degree of multi-position adaptability.

In the last 35 games of the regular season, Ressache averaged 14.9 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, shooting 51.8% from the field, 42.1% from three-pointers and 71.6% from free throws. He looks like an excellent starting level wing player who can gain a long-term foothold in the league.

Tanhua: McCain (76ers)

Actual ranking: 16

In the month when 76 injured soldiers were full of camps and McCain was the main force, he showed his greatest potential on the offensive end.. In 13 games from November 8 to December 4, he averaged 21.7 points, 3 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game, shooting 47% from the field, 40% from three-pointers, and 85% from free throws. These games are a period of intense competition between teams at the beginning of the season, rather than games after many teams have lost their playoff hopes at the end of the season.

During this period, McCain scored 23 points against the Knicks, scored 34 points against the Cavaliers and sent 10 assists, scored 29 points against the Magic away, scored 20 points on the Heat and the Grizzlies in two consecutive away games, and then scored 30 points in the most intense game of the Nets. No rookie has played as well as he did throughout the season.

McCain's comfort in handling the ball was fully demonstrated after he replaced the injured Maxi to become the offensive creator of the Sixers. We know he will likely develop into one of the top NBA shooters, with perfect shooting skills and a great feel for the ball. However, his ability to create opportunities and autonomous offenses is equally prominent, which makes him look like he has great potential in the long term.

Unfortunately, McCain's last game was on December 13, and the season was reimbursed due to a meniscus torn. His pairing with Maxi may be a bit tricky in the long run, as they are both small players, but McCain’s potential as an offensive player looks very high.

4th pick: Shepard (Rockets)

Actual pick: Tanhua

Although Shepard performed mediocrely in his rookie season, I still think his potential is worth looking forward to. If I were looking for a player with room for improvement, I would still choose Shepard. Below him, I didn’t see many players with star potential. But I can imagine that Shepard has the potential to make full use of his passing and shooting skills to become an important influencer.

Shepard's Rockets have a deep lineup and are ranked second in the West. He did not get much playing time, and he only played 654 minutes in total, and did not perform well in this limited time. He struggled on the defensive end and his three-point shooting percentage was not high.

However, Shepard is still a high-level pick-and-roll creator, with excellent vision and organizational skills, as well as elite-level long-range shots. He showed a good sense of rhythm in the summer league and I think he performed better than many people expected, especially when his teammates were low.

Especially in the game against the Clippers, Shepard showed many of the advantages we saw at the University of Kentucky and the 2024 Summer League. Obviously, the Rockets are full of confidence in him, not only giving him more playing time this year, but also having only signed a contract with Van Vreett for two years, which I think is quite tradable.

No. 5: Klingen (Trail Blazers)

Actual Pick: 7

Last year, I would choose Klingen as the Best Rookie Team. He performed well on the defensive end, especially after Ayton got injured, and he got more chances to play. Although he may not be the most dazzling player in terms of statistics, his impact on the team's victory cannot be underestimated.

In the last 28 games, Klingen averaged 8.8 points, 10 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game, shooting 55.6%. In addition, his sense of position and ability to protect the basket are still excellent. According to PBPStats, when Klingen was on the court, the Trail Blazers lost only 112.4 points per 100 possessions, 4 points less than when he was not on the court, which is equivalent to the top ten defense level in the NBA. In the 1324 minutes he played last season, the Trail Blazers basically maintained a balance of victory and loss, although the team lost about 5 more points per 100 rounds when he was not on the court.

Klingen has strong rebounding ability and excellent position sense. He allowed his opponent to shoot only 49.5% from the field at the basket. Given that the Trail Blazers are focused on improving their defense this offseason, he is expected to be an All-Star defensive center.

6th pick: Boozeris (Bulls)

Actual pick: 11

Although I have reservations about his potential, especially with doubts about his ability to create shots in the halftime, because he has a high hip and lacks strength to gain an advantage. But I think Boozelis is expected to be a qualified starting wing, thanks to his figure, athleticism and shooting ability in the open field.

Judging from the data throughout the season, his performance was not outstanding, but in the last 35 games, he averaged 13.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists per game, shooting percentage of 49.4%, three-point shooting percentage of 37.3%, and free throw shooting percentage of 81.7%. Although he is not as sharp as Rissache in the off-ball run and cutting timing, he is excellent off-ball run, and his athleticism makes him a threat that opponents must be closely guarded when he has enough time to prepare in the open space. His catch shots have reached a good level this year, something we've seen in his performance at Sunrise Christian in high school, but disappeared in the year when the G League ignited.

defense, I hope he will be more destructive and continue to invest at a higher level, if his role is more of an off-ball terminator. But as long as his shot is stable and he can open up space for an empty cut, for such a tall and athletic player, there will be an important team role waiting for him to take on.

7th pick: Ron Holland (Pistols)

Actual pick: 5

Holland played almost every game last season, missing only one game. He performed well on the defensive end and his athleticism on the open field during offense is also impressive. Despite having an average of 15 minutes of playing time per game, he has undertaken many tough defensive tasks and is very active in rebounding and stealing.

On the offensive end, his style of play is relatively simple. Due to his lack of shooting ability, his opponents rarely defend him closely.. However, judging from his performance in the summer league, it is obvious that he has put a lot of effort into shooting this offseason.

Maybe I valued his three-game performance in the Summer League, but not just the result, his jump shot looks like he has improved significantly. From preparation to taking action, the whole process seems smoother and more natural. If he can prove that he is at least an average scorer, he has the potential to be a player with great potential in this draft.

8th pick: Eddie (Grizzlies)

Actual pick: 9

Eddie averaged 22 minutes per game this season, contributing 9 points and 8 rebounds, and shooting percentage as high as 58%. He is always a threat at the basket. More importantly, the team performed very well when he was on the court at the same time as Morant.

Eddie is a powerful coverer who loves physical confrontation, which is similar to Adams. Therefore, during the time Morant and Eddie partnered, the Grizzlies beat their opponents nearly 10 points per 10 rounds, and their offensive efficiency exceeded 121. On the defensive end, the combination of Eddie and Jaren Jackson Jr. made the Grizzlies lose only 109.6 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top three in the NBA.

Eddie's game style is perfect as the Grizzlies hope to further increase their pick-and-roll coordination with Morant this season. However, he needs to recover from his left ankle surgery in June. He is expected to miss the early season game and will be reassessed in October. Despite this, he looks like a starting center who has been able to maintain his position in the NBA for a long time.

9th pick: Jaylen Wells

Actual pick: 39

Wells had a significant impact on team victory in the first three quarters of the season, he took on tough defensive tasks in the Grizzlies and also had excellent three-point shooting ability. At least, Wells was able to hit the shot after receiving the ball and provide strong support to the team in the fast break. Despite his decline in performance at the end of the season, he remains a strong contender for Rookie of the Year.

So, why is he only ranked 9th? I have some concerns about his future potential, even if he has proven himself to be a player close to starting level. He hasn't shown much ability in playing with the ball.

In comparison, Josh Richardson, who was selected in the second round in 2015, immediately became a major rotation player and has been an excellent two-way role player for nearly a decade, earning $62 million in the NBA before heading overseas. But his level has never improved much, and I am worried Wells may face the same situation. However, such performance is already a lottery-level success for this draft, and it is a win-win result for the Grizzlies and Wells.

10th pick: Crael Wealth (Heat)

Actual pick: 15

Wealth is a big player who is good at finishing the offense. I chose Eddie to be ahead rather than him because Eddie is better at pick-and-roll and defense, but if Wel can focus on the details, he has greater long-term potential for the Heat.

In the last 42 games last season, Weal averaged 11.1 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game, shooting as high as 54.4%, and he can score a three-pointer every two games. Few big players can fly as fast as Weil after a pick-and-roll, and if he can cut in time and go straight, he can complete a shocking dunk at any time. Despite being 7 feet tall and having a wingspan of 7 feet 5, he moves like a wing player.

I tend to focus on the basic skills of big players in the center position, and Wel is not doing well enough in this regard, which is why he ranks 10th. I don't think he did well in his position last season.

When Weil and Adebayo were on the court at the same time, the Heat's defense performed well, with a defensive efficiency of 110.5. His inside deterrence does provide more possibilities for the Heat's lineup matching, making the team better on the defensive end. But I hope he can continue to improve in space utilization and overall activity.

In addition, although one of the major advantages of Wel is that he can leave early after the pick-and-roll and quickly cut into the basket to avoid the assisted players to complete the aerial relay, he still needs to continue to improve his pick-and-roll ability. The good news is that he joins a team that pays great attention to detail and development training.

11th pick: Alex Thal (Wizards)

Actual pick: No.

In last year's draft, I ranked Sal first, but if he participated in the draft this year, I probably wouldn't give him such a high evaluation because I have adjusted my views on the center position.

For Sal, I was somewhat attracted by the idea that he could expand his way of playing as a center. It is undeniable that he moves very smoothly at such a large size and has the potential to switch defenses. He also has the potential to shoot and is quite comfortable when shooting from a distance. His passing ability last season was eye-catching, especially after a short pick-and-roll. He feels very good about the ball, and I always think every team needs a No. 5 player who can open up space on the offense, and Saar can do that.

However, Saul did not do a good job in some aspects that are indispensable to the NBA center. When grabbing rebounds, he doesn't feel good when facing confrontations, and he is easily squeezed away by his opponent when trying to stand firm. The same problem also occurs on the defensive end, he will be struggling to deal with strong players and will easily lose his position.

On the offensive end, Saar is one of the worst finishing skills among the centers entering the league in recent years. According to Synergy, he made only 45.1% layups in the half-field position battle last season, one of the lowest of big players I've ever seen. He also shot only 55.4% from the basket, ranking second to last among centers who made at least 150 shots at the basket, only higher than Drummond. Besides, he is not a particularly outstanding coverer.

If Sar can strengthen his strength, improve the quality of the screen, and solve the problem of ending at the basket, his potential remains very high. But without these improvements, it may be difficult for him to get into lineup rotations that can remain efficient on both sides of the offense and defense.

12th pick: Ajay Mitchell (Thunder)

Actual pick: 38

Mitchell performed well as a second round pick and played an important role in the Thunder who won the championship three months before being injured due to plantar fasciitis. As the team’s backup point guard, he is very useful, organizing the offense confidently and calmly, shooting efficiently and finishing the finish at the rim.

Mitchell is always balanced on the court, has a strong ability to take off with both feet, and is a very outstanding playmaker when he has talented players around him. In addition, his basket finishing skills are excellent for his body. To be a starter, Mitchell needs to improve his ability to pass and create opportunities. But given his confident performance after the pick-and-roll, he could be a starter if he continues to grow.

No. 13: Kay Sean George (Wizards)

Actual Pick: 24

George and Wells may be my most unexpected two players in the 2024 draft cycle, and they are undoubtedly my two biggest misjudgments.

At Miami, I didn't think George was particularly good on the defensive end and didn't show enough effort or awareness to make me think he could be a good defender, even if he was in a good shape. However, in his rookie season, he became an active defender on a team that had poor defensive performance. He is always active and enters the game, causing considerable trouble for his opponents.

On the offensive end, George lacked vertical explosive power to complete the end of the basket, and his shooting performance was not stable. I think he will eventually become a reliable catch shot and be able to make pass decisions quickly when facing a tight-kick defense, but his role may be limited by some reason. Still, he still looks like a successful choice for Wizards management.

14th overall pick: Topic (Thunder)

Actual pick: 12

Although Topic missed the entire rookie season due to a torn ACL, I still kept him in his original position in rankings and draft picks. The 6-foot-6 point guard is an excellent pick-and-roll tactical executor and passer with a significant physical advantage. He excels in the second and third-tier defensive readings, always threatening his opponents when breaking through and is able to accurately pass the ball to his teammates in the corner or on the wing. He used to score at the basket at the league and was expected to find opportunities to score in the paint area in the NBA.

Ultimately, whether his potential can be fully realized depends on whether he can score stably in the NBA from a long distance. His jumper was unstable when he was on the emergency stop jump, but in the Thunder, he should be able to recover slowly in a good development environment and continue to improve his game.

No. 15th pick: Filipovsky (Jazz)

Actual pick: 32

Filipovsky is the top 20 players in my mind, and now I still think so. He has performed well in his rookie season and is one of my favorite three players in the top 35 picks last year’s draft. I think he deserves the best rookie honors because he averaged nearly 10 points and 6 rebounds per game, shooting up to 50% from the field and 35% from three-pointers.

He performed particularly well in the last third of the season, averaging 14.5 points and 8 rebounds in the last 29 games, shooting 50.6% from the field and 37% from three-pointers. He is willing to engage in physical confrontation and is much tougher inside than people think. In addition, he also has certain ball control and passing abilities. The key lies in how good his defensive level can reach. If he can prove his defensive ability in the fourth or fifth position, he has the potential to be a starter. Otherwise, he could be a high-level substitute inside like Olynick, helping some very good teams.

No. 16: Carlton Carrington (Wiacs)

Actual Pick: 14

Carrington played the most playing time in this rookie and performed unevenly. It is worth noting that he is one of the youngest rookies in this class, but was asked to serve as a difficult position as a point guard when he was a teenager. I don't think he's fully prepared to take on such a big role.

He tried his best on the defensive end, but he was thin. His dribbling skills are very smooth, but he is unable to effectively hit the basket due to his lack of strength and explosive power. However, his experience of playing after pick-and-roll and his stable mid-range jumper are very valuable. I think he did a pretty good job of passing, while reducing turnovers and sharing the main control responsibilities with Poole.

He just turned 20 and may take time to adapt to his physical growth, especially when he experienced a late development in high school. But his talent may be even better once he is physically enhanced. At least, he looks like a great sixth-man player and has the potential to become a more important role in the future.

No. 17: Terence Shannon Jr. (Timberwolves)

Actual ranking: 27

Whenever Shannon stepped onto the court, his athletic talent was fully revealed. Although he is 25 years old, he still has the potential to tap with his outstanding athleticism. Shannon has shown a major impact on the Timberwolves many times in the playoffs, even if he is on the field with a big score lead most of the time. Although he doesn't have many opportunities to play, he can perform well every time he plays, even on a team that has entered the division finals. As long as he continues to keep his shot feel and avoids too many turnovers, he will be an interesting replacement for the Timberwolves after Alexander Walker leaves. This season, he is expected to win a substitute role on a team that is determined to win the championship.

18th pick: Tristan da Silva (Magic)

Actual pick: 18

When the Magic selected Da Silva, they wanted to get a big wing player who could play smart basketball, who could eat rotation time, play on the defensive end, and shoot accurately. Except for his three-point shooting percentage of only 33.5% (rookie season), Da Silva basically met these expectations. He played in a total of 74 games, and due to team injuries, he almost half of the games were starting. As a winger who runs and cuts off the ball, he is quite useful. While I don't think he has too much potential to tap, he should be able to be a good rotation wing for a while as long as his shots remain stable and his body becomes stronger.

19th pick: Isaiah Collier (Jazz)

Actual pick: 29

Collier's performance in the rookie season matches his expectations on draft night. He leads all rookies in assists, averaging 6.3 times per game. As a breakout and pick-and-roll scorer, he is like an explosive bowling ball, able to keep his vision open and pass accurately when cutting into the basket. His passing ability is unquestionable, but the problem is his scoring ability. His real shooting percentage is about 14% lower than the league average and his long-range shooting performance is not good enough. His three-point shooting percentage last season was only 24.9%, and his mid-range shooting was not ideal. Unless he can improve in this regard, he is more suitable for a substitute role. The good news is that he has shown enough ability to do this position.

20th pick: Ryan Dunn (Suns)

Actual pick: 28

Dunn served as the core of the Suns last season, which was exactly the role he expected as a top defensive player at the University of Virginia during his college basketball. Whether he can go further depends on his shooting ability. The good news is that he has made significant improvements in his shooting this year, and he dared to try 3.6 long shots per game. The bad news is that he has a shooting percentage of only 31.1%, and his free throw percentage is less than 50%. However, in the summer league, he performed better on his jump shot and looked more confident and active, especially when cutting in. He is expected to be a reliable rotation player, with his height and wingspan, expected to be an influential substitute.

Other nominations:

Dervin Carter's defense and tenacity still make me feel confident, but the shooting he showed in the summer league after his left shoulder surgery in July 2024 was a bit worried.

Yves Missy may be the biggest secret here, after all, he entered the All-Rookie Team after being selected in the 21st pick. He contributed a lot of playing time to the Pelicans who are in desperate need of center. However, I don't think his performance on the defensive end is ideal, and his impact on the game as a basket protector is limited. Still, he is expected to be a long-term rotation player at least, and if he improves on defense, he might be a reliable starter.

Cody Williams did not have a smooth start at the Jazz. I probably prefer him more than most people. I think once he gets stronger, he's likely to be a useful rotation player. The good news is that Jazz has enough reason to be patient and wait for his growth.

Jacobbe Walter performed quite well at the end of the season, averaging 10.7 points per game in the last 24 games and shooting more than 40% of the three-point shooting percentage. I'm optimistic that the Raptors' No. 19 pick will be a rotation player.

Rob Dillingham is another top 10 player to be excluded. I was worried about his size and strength combination on the defensive end, which is one of the reasons why I didn’t rate him in the lottery zone. He will serve as the Timberwolves’ backup point guard this season and it will be interesting to see if they can rely on him. Admittedly, he is very talented in possession and shooting.

Kneckett is another noteworthy distinction. His defensive performance with the Lakers was a mess throughout the season, and after the Lakers failed to get Mawei with his trade, his offensive performance was not satisfactory.

Original text: Sam Vecenie

Compiled by: JayChan