Little Heavenly King Mountain Curse! Pacers 44.8% win rate is reversed, BXR: Thunder 92% probability is stable

The importance of G3 in the finals is no exaggeration to describe it as "Little Heavenly King Mountain". Data shows that in the history of the playoffs, the probability of teams that won the G3 final promotion is 80.1%, while in the finals, the probability of teams leading 2-1 winning the championship is as high as 79.4%. But the Pacers were in an embarrassing situation: the institution predicted that its home winning rate was only 44.8%, the Thunder became a favorite with a away winning rate of 55.2%, and BXR even gave the Thunder a 92% chance of winning the championship, almost sentenced the Pacers to "death sentence". The root of the contradiction lies in the strength gap between the two teams. The Thunder's offensive and defensive efficiency ranks among the top three in the league this season. Alexander and Homgren's internal and external combination averaged 52 points per game, while the Pacers rely on the Halliburton + Turner combination only had 45 points. More importantly, the Thunder's winning rate at critical moments (within 5 points in the last 5 minutes) reached 68.9%, while the Pacers were 52.3% - this "big heart" gap may become a fatal injury in the battle of life and death.

Although the Pacers have arranged the "Yellow Ocean" theme decoration at home to try to suppress their opponents with atmosphere, the data will not lie: the Thunder's away record this season is 32 wins and 9 losses, and is one of the strongest teams in the finals in the past decade. Some commentators pointed out: "The Pacers' home advantage is more like psychological comfort. The Thunder's hard power has long crossed the 'home and away gap'. G3 may be just the prologue to the end of the suspense."