Preview of the East-West Decision!

When the playoffs reached this stage, the remaining teams should have no secrets:

The Thunder played 7 games with the Nuggets, and the Nuggets tried everything he could and couldn't do;

Wolves had average strength in both rounds, and there were still secrets in theory. However, the Wolf's head 8 rotation is relatively fixed, with a significantly higher level than the end-of-bench players, and the lineup switching method is also clear and clear. So, in fact, there is no secret; the strength of the

Knicks in both rounds was not good, and they played 6 games in both rounds, with averaging 1.3 and 0.5 respectively. Judging from the data, it should be dark and dim. This may not be important either. Thibodeau's team will be like the playoffs, and the variables will not be too big.

and insist on which team has more to dig, that should be the Pacers. Since the playoffs, the Pacers' head rotation averages are as follows:

Halliburton, 34.1 minutes; Nembhard, 32.8 minutes; Siakam, 32.1 minutes; Turner, 31 minutes; Nesmith, 29.6 minutes; Mathering, 17.2 minutes; TJ McConnell, 16.6 minutes; Topin, 16 minutes.

Pacers' appearance load is not heavy. This of course reflects the Pacers' relatively easy victory in the first two rounds of the series (average 7.6 points and 3.4 points to win the Cavaliers), and is also related to the Pacers' employment habits. Compared to the Knicks, the Pacers are not originally a starting team, and their starting lineup is not very loaded in the regular season. The Pacers are still using long rotations. In addition to the starting five Tigers and the three teams on the bench, Shepard is basically in the rotation. Although the time for Mop and Walker is not stable enough, they are not DNP. Carlisle is playing with 11 people, which is completely opposite to Thibodeau's idea.

There is no strict difference between long rotation and short rotation, but the difference in user strength can indeed influence the results of the series, and the way it controls the results is closer to a gamble. In the first round of the playoffs, the Nuggets defeated the Clippers in 7 games with 20 times the King of Realm. The Nuggets are very strong starting at the championship season level. They keep playing these people, and they are confused by anyone watching it. Although everyone knows that high-intensity employment of Nuggets has hidden physical fitness and injury risks, no one can be sure when the hidden dangers will burst.

The Clippers said, can you hold on to the end with this fight?

Nuggets said, don't worry, you'll do it first.

Godden's G6 lifted his thigh in the second round, and although G7 insisted on playing, the effect was reduced. The vitality and tenacity shown by the Nuggets in the G7 are obviously not as good as the last round of tiebreak. It is acceptable to exceed the physical limit in the short term, and long-term overdrafts are likely to be punished.

We return to the Knicks vs Pacers series.

Considering the large number of injuries in this year's playoffs, the Knicks' way of employing people, the Pacers' way of employing people, and the OG in the two teams' series last year, it's hard for me not to put the X factor of load management at the forefront. Can the

Pacers knock the Knicks out?

Or, will Carlisle continue to choose to run to the opponent with long rotation, or will it shorten the rotation and force it out as soon as possible?

This is quite interesting.

Knicks and Pacers have a set of paradoxical employment variables:

The Knicks' starting game intensity is indeed ranked in the league, but the people assigned by management to Thibodeau are indeed "top horses". Bronson and Hart are both iron-blooded warriors. Towns's endurance has declined in recent years and was also an iron man in his early career. Bridges is even more like an immortal. However, the player with the Knicks' biggest load is OG with the greatest potential for injury (40 minutes per game);

Pacers' match pace is fast, the starting time is controlled reasonably, and the substitute intensity is high. In the preview of the Cavaliers series, the Pacers' substitute performance has declined this year, and the connection may not be able to beat the super substitute Cavaliers this year. The Pacers' substitute actually performed better than expected, but compared to their starting five tigers, the five men still had a clear gap, with 21.4 points in a 100-round runner-up. In fact, in the regular season, the strength of the Pacers' starting five Tigers is comparable to the Nuggets' starting lineup, which is very strong.

You can choose to believe that the Knicks will last, or you can believe that the Pacers, as the side with better potential physical reserves, have an advantage in the later stage of the series. But in terms of physical fitness game, there are obviously no variables in the Knicks, and Thibodeau will continue the farmer's style. All variables are in Carlisle. It makes sense to not tighten the rotation and eliminate the consumption of rotation or to reduce the rotation force early, and even more detailed strategic designs can be made. For example, G1 first takes the strength to compete for the home court advantage, and G2 then returns to normal strength, similar to the Lakers' strategy of playing against the Warriors in 23 years.

I tend to think that Carlisle will not change much at the start of the game, and the beginning of the series will be dominated by me.

As for the offensive and defensive game between the two sides, the focus is on the center.

First of all, there is a high probability that no one can defend against each other. Last year, the two teams exploded scripts in the playoffs, and this year the Pacers' defense has improved a lot, but the direction of the Knicks' lineup upgrade is offensive, and the impact of the two changes may be partially offset.

Bronson has too strong personal ability, and he has a bit of love for anyone with the ball. As a cover man, Towns had a great threat to follow the rules and dismantle them. Judging from the regular season match between the two teams, Towns is definitely a difficult point to deal with. Of course, Towns' personal performance has been quite ups and downs. If there is a plot similar to that of a slightest in the first round, I will pretend that I didn't say the above passage.

Haliburton's defense has improved this year, and I hope he will not be able to surrender any more cases of being killed by everyone. However, he is indeed not easy to match the three wings of the Knicks. In the year of OG's offense, the advantage of dislocation in body shape is the greatest. Hart is brave and excellent in combining the ball, so he can be reckless. Relatively speaking, Bridges, who has the best offense, has the least advantage in confrontation, and I wonder if Harry can withstand it. Anyway, with this point, combined with the advantage of the Knicks starting the ball, and the last time they can match Bronson's name, Harry should not be uncomfortable in this round.

Other end, it's too cruel to let Towns defend the Pacers pick-and-roll. The Pacers develop offensive ability and there is no need to make a big open shot. You will basically not worry about the team's starting style and transfer balls. An interesting factor may be that the Pacers' three-pointers in the first two rounds were a bit too accurate, and I wonder if this round will be hit by a critical hit by the law of conservation of character.

Why did the focus of the game be centered?

Downs needs no more talk, he is the protagonist on both offense and defense. His deep threat in the middle lane directly determines whether the Knicks can severely damage the Pacers' positional defense line, and thus not lose the advantage in the offensive. The pressure he faces on the defensive end will be epic, which is a rival that DPOY calls him difficult to defend against.

Turner is also critical. He is closer to Towns' mission, and he is more "priced" than Towns. The two of them will become a key variable. In comparison, the strength of the inside line behind Towns can be seen, and there is something behind Turner.

From the perspective of protecting Turner and improving the effectiveness of cooperative defense, can the number 4/5 dislocation prevention be taken out in this round? Turner has no problem with Hart, and the other four groups are not easy to match, and one group of quality must be sacrificed. But Carlisle is still worth trying.

If I go back more than half a month ago, before the Knicks fought with the Celtics, I would look at the Pacers unconditionally. But then the Knicks proved themselves in a series with the defending champions. Although the Celtics themselves have great problems, the Knicks' perverted hard solution and tough game temperament are still impressive. If the Knicks can make good use of their home court advantages and take the lead in building enough advantages in the series, they have a chance to stay close to the finals.

But it won't be easy to knock down the Walker with one punch. On paper, the Pacers have an advantage, although the way it presents is uncertain: if the Pacers start, they can squeeze out combat power, while the Knicks are constant; if the Pacers don't start first, they also have the opportunity to blow up the Knicks' physical fitness. The

series will drag backwards, and the situation is more likely to turn toward the Pacers.

The Thunder and the Timberwolves have to start with rotation.

Timberwolves are the more certain rotation side, but there is a rotation variable with the greatest difference in effect.

Thunder is the party with a larger rotation variable, but as long as the employment is not outrageous, the impact of Thunder changing posture is not that great.

Timberwolves have the 8 people in the head. The results of these 8 people have withstood the test and the overall quality is very high. In theory, no one else has a chance. This does not mean that the Timberwolves only have 8 rotations that can be used. When the two teams played in the regular season, the unknown Clark's effect of defending SGA was somewhat unexpected. But unless a player gets into foul trouble, the Timberwolves may not use 9 regular rotations.

As mentioned in the previous round of preview, Gobert is a special existence in his style. He is not present, and the logic of the wolf has changed. I will not repeat this here. Gobert's effect is quite uncertain. In the first round of the series, Gobert's effect in the previous few games was quite controversial, but G5 dominated the game. His effect was not good enough at the beginning against the Warriors series. At that time, I said that if the Warriors lose to the five outside the country, they can still play in this series, but if they lose to Gobert, they can't play. After Finch realized that the Warriors could not solve the development offensive problem and Gobert was very useful in limiting Butler's development offensive, the series ended immediately. The same is true for the Western Finals. If Gobert could contain SGA and Jaylen's breakthroughs and cause the Thunder's positional battle and offense to encounter big trouble, Finch might be more willing to keep him present. But this matter will not be easy. Firstly, the Thunder's offensive resources are obviously much better than Wukuyong, and secondly, the Thunder's super defensive and counterattack ability may easily offset Gobert's defensive bonus.

To put it bluntly, is it Gobert's pain to defend against Thunder, or is it even more painful to defend against Gobert?

Would you believe more in the former DPOY or the best defensive team of this season?

I would be slightly leaning towards the latter.

If Gobert cannot stand, the Timberwolves need to play their trump card - Five Outsiders. The Wolf's five-for-one team played against the Thunder in the regular season was good. The review at the time said that Wolf Wu Gobert's lineup delivered a defense that exceeded expectations, and the offense made the Thunder even more difficult. But the reference of the two teams' regular season matches is just that. If you really start, the Wolves may need more three-pointers than in the past two rounds. This is because: The Thunder's single defense, basket protection, and rotation quality is significantly better than that of the Lakers and the Warriors, and is very suitable for defending the five-for-one team; the Wolves' five-for-one lineup has the biggest bonus to them, which is to significantly lower the threshold for handling the ball, and to move the ball to the three-point line, and almost everyone has some ability to break the score, allowing the Wolves to play a simple, smooth and effective basketball. But facing the Thunder's defense, the difficulty of each Wolves handling the ball has increased. Is Jayden, Devin, Reed, and Walker's dominance enough? Huazi and Randall will also face a huge test of shooting.

Once the five-way outsiders cannot have a clear advantage in the offense, Finch will have to make a more difficult balance between Gobert's defense and the five-way outsiders' offense. Judging from Finch's on-the-scene command in the playoffs in recent years, his level is rising and falling. Whether he can switch to the right level needs to be a question mark.

Conversely, the effect of the thunder with a larger rotation variable may not be that great. After 11 games in the playoffs, I have not particularly emphasized the switching of the Thunder form, and this team has very many forms, including double towers, single towers, two starting centers, but Jaylin (a better space point), and even five smalls.

The reason why Thunder does not emphasize too much is that Thunder does not have a lineup with the ultimate style. Even if the Thunder plays the five-pointer, it is still a pseudo-5-pointer. There are always points that are completely let go of the three-pointer line, which makes them plays the five-pointer without completely changing the game logic.. On the other hand, the Thunder's substitute's defense is generally not bad, especially the defensive influence of the No. 6 man Caruso is even better than the center, which makes the Thunder's logic that it is better to play the double tower than to play the small defense.

Of course, strictly speaking, there is still a difference between who to use the last card of the Thunder. The offensive and defensive characteristics of Jie Lin and Qiao are obviously more extreme, and the attack and attack are indeed poorer when playing the double towers. But none of these matters. The Thunder does not have the problem of "must sort out a certain set of logic before they can play". This is a team that has a big brother's hard solution + defensive counterattack.

More fundamentally speaking, the Thunder is strong because they need to defend against their opponents to win, and they can indeed defend against them, and the team's defensive resources are still too good. It just so happens that the Timberwolves are not a team that is so strong that their opponents cannot defend. Although I'm not sure which form Thunder is best for defending Timberwolves, they should be able to find a correct solution after repeated attempts.

For this reason, I think Thunder has a strategic advantage. If the Timberwolves want to pass the level, they need to find the balance between Gobert and the five outsiders. If the two forms can get the evaluation of "defending the opponent without being too suffocating" and "playing relatively smoothly and defending well", their chance will come.