Ranked first in the league in three-point shooting percentage but last in field goal attempts! Where did the Rockets "magic ball" concept go?

Translator's Note: The original article was published on SBNation. The data in the article are as of the time of publication of the original article (November 9, local time). The dates and times involved are all local time. The opinions expressed in this article have nothing to do with the translator or the platform.

Collective amnesia is a hypothetical phenomenon with no real-world examples.

Unless, of course, all of us have forgotten something.

That being said, some situations do feel like collective amnesia. Just look at the NBA’s social media. Every year, most users here seem to forget that a large enough sample size is required before drawing conclusions about anything.

Good goal at halftime? You are the MVP! A bad half-time goal? Get ready for a bad season. It's a maddening cycle. No one remembers what anyone else said, so no one is responsible. It's an arms race to see who can come up with a hot idea first. If you get it right, you cement your status as a genius. If you make a mistake, just do it again next year.

In short, the Rockets' current record is 5 wins and 3 losses. This is just a sample of 8 games. This is not enough to draw any absolute conclusions, but it is enough to serve as the basis for some speculation.

As the sample size expands, the following are four aspects worthy of attention.

1. Three-point shooting

Regarding this point, I am just discussing the matter, please feel free to comment.

There has been a lot of discussion about the Rockets' three-point shooting percentage in the 2025-26 season. The importance of this hit rate may be overstated. It is true that the Rockets' three-point shooting percentage is as high as 43.3%, the highest in the league. But their average three-point attempts per game is also the lowest in the league at 29.8. This means they only hit 12.9 three-pointers per game, ranking 19th in the league.

The Rockets treat three-pointers just like American singer Frank Ocean treats releasing an album. He only releases when he thinks he has a masterpiece on his hands.

That's fine for Mr. Ocean - even if it's frustrating for fans - but the Rockets can't afford the same hesitation. This goes against the grain of Mike D’Antoni’s basketball philosophy that we all know (and maybe love?). The Rockets haven't won the production game from beyond the arc, which undermines the value of their high shooting percentage.

That's not to say they should lead the league in field goal attempts. The Rockets' lineup structure is not built for this. But if they can take five more shots per game, they can break into the top 20 in the league in terms of shot volume. Even if the shooting percentage ranking drops a few spots, from a data point of view, this offensive adjustment should be reasonable.

2. Opponent's three-point shooting

When writing this part, I almost fell into the misunderstanding of "post hoc attribution".

I was pretty sure that due to their frequent use of 2-3 zone defense, the Rockets gave their opponents too many open three-point opportunities. It certainly feels like it.

The results show that among three-pointers classified as "open" by the NBA official website (the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away, approximately 1.22-1.83 meters), the Rockets limit the opponent's proportion of such shots to the lowest in the league (9.8%). And among 3-pointers classified as "wide open" (from 6 feet or more), they restricted opponents to the 12th-lowest rate in the league (20.9%). Data shows that the Rockets' three-point defense is not bad:

They are just unlucky.

Faced with those open three-pointers, the opponent's shooting percentage was 37.7%, ranking 10th in the league. When shooting in wide open spaces, opponents' three-point shooting percentage is as high as 47.6% - the highest in the league (or from the Rockets' perspective, the worst).

This is good news. The Rockets should slightly increase their three-point attempts, and their opponents' shooting luck should return to normal. Once that happens, the extra ball-possession advantage the Rockets gain from their top-notch offensive rebounding should become even more apparent.

Despite this, the team still needs to focus on the aspects that it can control.

3. Assist-to-turnover ratio

The Rockets' assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.49 ranks fifth from the bottom in the league. It is worth mentioning that they are the only team among the bottom five with a winning rate of more than half.

I know. Everyone is tired of the "do the Rockets need a point guard" discussion. Well, no one here wants to repeat the same old story. But this is not a repeat of the same old story. After all, the team just committed 23 turnovers against the Spurs.

They need a starting-level point guard. This part of the discussion will be short. Because this is a clear conclusion that requires no further elaboration.

This doesn't mean giving up on Reed Shepard. It doesn’t mean taking a gamble on Ja Morant either. Rather, go for Jose Alvarado, or Dennis Schroder, or some other player like that. What they need is a player who can play better than Aaron Holiday but who won't demand so much playing time that it completely deprives Shepard of his opportunity.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the Rockets have not fully utilized the value of their valuable assets.

4. Kevin Durant’s efficiency

The year was 2008. Barack Obama was elected president in November. Once you turn on the radio, you can't avoid Flo Rida's song about an unknown short girl who loves to dance ("Low"). It was the best of times and the worst of times.

The last time Kevin Durant's true shooting percentage (TS%) was lower than his 60.3% so far this season, it dates back to that year.

The issue of small sample size must be taken into consideration here. Durant's mid-range jump shot has always been a hair's breadth this season, frequently missing the basket. This situation is likely to change.

Having said that, from a basketball perspective, there is indeed reason to be concerned. Another reliable offensive initiator in this team is Alperen Shenkin. Ime Uduka was unable to play both of them for 48 minutes, so it was necessary to stagger their appearances.

When Durant is alone on the court, he will encounter crazy double-teams from his opponents. Even if he and Shin Kyung were present at the same time, he would still be trapped.

Jose Alvarado can't change this, but it will at least give the Rockets another person to organize the push. If the Rockets have a more stable floor general who can carry the ball through half the court and decide whether Durant or Shen Jing will initiate the offense, it will keep opponents on their toes.

This can even keep opponents guessing who the Rockets will give the ball to.