Should the Rockets keep Jaylen Green? If you improve 2 skills, you can compare to Edwards

1. The "potential gap" between Green and Edwards: The two worlds of data and performance

(I) The "efficiency watershed" on the offensive end

This season's regular season, Edwards was selected into the second team of the All-Squad with averaging 27.6 points and 39.5% three-point shooting percentage, and averaged 25.8 points per game in the playoffs, becoming the core engine for the Timberwolves to advance to the Western Conference Finals. In contrast, although Green contributed 21.3 points in the regular season, he scored less than double-digit points in 4 of the 7 games in the playoffs, averaged 13.3 points per game, and his three-point shooting percentage plummeted to 29.5%. He scored only 8 points on 3 of 8 shots in the tiebreak game, and the plus-minus value - 15 became the key drag on the team's loss. This performance of "regular season dragon and playoff bug" exposed Green's lack of stability in a high-pressure environment, and his decision-making ability in key rounds is in sharp contrast to Edwards.

(II) The "natural shortcomings" on the defensive end

Green's 84 kg weight is obviously lighter among the defenders. When facing strong opponents such as Edwards (101 kg), Butler, the disadvantages of the confrontation are infinitely magnified. This season's playoffs, Green's defensive opponent's three-point shooting percentage is as high as 42.1%, while Edwards' defensive efficiency value (DRPM) ranks in the top 15% of the same position, locking stars such as Alexander and Curry many times at critical moments. What's more serious is that Green's defensive awareness is weak: in the tiebreak game, he missed defense many times, resulting in the Warriors' open three-pointer hit, while Edwards contributed 3 steals and 2 blocks in a single game when facing the Thunder in G3 in the Western Conference Finals, directly changing the game trend.

2. The "must-option" to succeed Edwards: the "life and death" of the two skills

(I) Skill 1: "Magic Ballization" projection revolution

Edwards averaged 4.1 three-pointers per game this season, with a shooting percentage of 39.5%, of which the three-point shooting percentage of the top arc is as high as 43%. This "high-yield and efficient" shooting ability makes him the top scorer in the league. If Green wants to catch up, he needs to break through in two dimensions:

shot selection optimization: He has made 42% of his three-point shooting this season, but he averaged only 2.8 shots per game, with a shooting percentage of 34%. Referring to Edwards' magic ball model of "receiving 65% + breaking through and passing", Green should reduce strong shots (the three-point shooting percentage of strong shots this season is only 28%), and increase unball runs and open shots after pick-and-roll.

Shot speed improvement: Green's three-point shooting speed was 0.82 seconds, 0.15 seconds slower than Edwards, which caused his shooting rate to plummet under high pressure defense. The Rockets can learn from Curry's "quick shot training method" and use elastic band assistance and multi-ball practice to compress their shot speed to less than 0.7 seconds.

(II) Skill 2: "Heavy Duty" defensive transformation

Edwards' defensive deterrence comes from his weight of 101 kg and top-level lateral movement speed. When he defended his opponents through this season, he only scored 0.89 points per round, ranking among the top three defenders in the league. Green's transformation needs to be divided into two steps:

Weight gain and core strength strengthening: while maintaining speed, increase the weight to 90 kg, focusing on strengthening lower limb strength (such as squats, deadlifts) and core stability (such as medicine balls hitting the ground, plank support variants) to improve the balance ability in confrontation.

Reshaping of defensive awareness: Learn Edwards' "predictive defense" through video analysis - when the opponent holds the ball, block the breakthrough route half a step ahead of time, while maintaining observation of the passing route. The Rockets can arrange for Green and Amen Thompson to perform "1v1 defensive training" to simulate Edwards' "aggressive defense" style.

3. The Rockets' "game moment": "double script" of staying with the team and trading

(I) The team plan: "Gambling" All-Star Potential

Tactical adaptation adjustment: Transform Green from a ball-holding core to a "3D point guard", reduce his singles proportion (single-only proportion this season is 28%, the league is 12th highest), increase the unball-around screen (refer to Thompson's "Elevator Gate" tactic) and fixed-point three-point shooting (the fixed-point three-point shooting percentage this season is 38%, which can be increased to 42%).

Character positioning and relegation: If Green cannot improve stability, you can refer to the "Super Sixth Man" mode of the Jazz Clarkson, allowing him to lead the second team to attack, and the starting position will be given to Shepard or White Devil Whitmore, who has a more stable shooting.

Contract incentive clause: Add a "performance bonus" to the existing contract. For example, if Green's three-point shooting percentage increases to more than 38% next season and his defensive efficiency enters the top 50% of the same position, it can trigger a $10 million reward, forcing him to improve his shortcomings.

(II) Trading Plan: "Swap Superstar" Rebuild Opportunities

Trading Value Assessment: Although Green's 3-year 106 million contract (2027 player option) is attractive, his poor performance in the playoffs has caused his trading value to plummet. If the Rockets want to send him away, they may have to pay 1-2 first-round picks, and their potential next players include the Hornets and Magic in the rebuilding.

chip combination suggestions: Take Green as the core, paired with the 2027 first round pick and Jabbarry Smith Jr., and try to trade Durant or Antetokounmpo. For example: Use Green + Smith + 2027 first round + 2029 first round to build the new Big Three of Shinkyung + Durant + Amen Thompson.

Risk hedging strategy: If the transaction fails, the Rockets can use Green as a "expired contract" to release 36 million salary space in the summer of 2027, chasing the big fish in the free market (such as Doncic, Alexander).

4. Conclusion: Green's "window of redemption" requires miracles or time?

(I) Historical Mirror: Kobe's "weight gain transformation" and Wiggins' "defensive awakening"

Kobe increased his weight from 95 kg to 100 kg in 2000. By strengthening back-to-back singles and low-post defense, he transformed from a "scoring guard" to a superstar who "offense and defense"; Wiggins changed from a "health player" to a "defense team" candidate by learning Leonard's "death entanglement" defensive skills. If Green could follow suit, he would be able to copy this "counterattack script".

(II) Realistic dilemma: "Talent Trap" and "Attitude Crisis"

Green's problem lies not only in his technical shortcomings, but also in his attitude. After being eliminated from the playoffs this season, he chose to go on vacation with his girlfriend instead of practicing more, while Edwards practiced back-to-body singles and defensive footsteps in the arena at the same time. This "professional spirit" gap may be more fatal than the technical gap. As O'Neal said, "He has to learn to control the game in key games, otherwise he will never become a superstar."

(III) Ultimate judgment: " Stay at the team + transformation" is the optimal solution

Overall, the Rockets should give Green another year to observe whether he can fulfill his talent through the triple transformation plan of "weight gain + projection training + defensive awareness cultivation". If there is no improvement next season, it will not be too late to start the trade again. After all, the age of 23 and the "cost-performance ratio" of a 106 million contract gives Green a possibility to become an "all-star" player - provided that he can really "some in the stadium" like Edwards did during the offseason.