Broken Blue: Italy has fallen so badly, is there still a chance for the World Cup?

There are no miracles, only tragedies. The expected 9-goal victory did not come, and the tragic situation of being massacred by big scores in both rounds was unbearable to look at. Italy watched at home as Norway returned to the World Cup after 27 years, while itself fell into the quagmire of the play-offs. After missing two consecutive World Cup matches, the Azzurri's road back is still full of thorns.

[No luck, no strength]

In the past two World Cup preliminaries, Italy could use bad luck as an excuse. In the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, Italy faced Sweden in the European play-offs and completed 38 shots in 180 minutes. In the second round at home, the ball possession rate reached 75%, but they handed over two goals; in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, Jorginho hosted two penalty kicks, and the Italians handed the qualification directly to the Swiss team. After entering the play-offs, they once again performed an embarrassing record of 30 shots and 0 goals, watching the "dark horse" North Macedonia go away.

However, this time, Italy can no longer use luck as an excuse. Facing its direct competitor Norway, Italy was completely crushed in the away game and was also defeated in the home match. While Haaland, Serlot, Nousa and others were harvesting the goal difference in an attitude of chopping melons and vegetables, Italy was faltering in away games in Israel and Estonia. The defensive and offensive capabilities are both mediocre, and it is inevitable that the Blue Jackets will not win the first place in the group.

In recent years, it has been rare for wealthy clubs to miss the World Cup, and Italy is in a very embarrassing situation.

[Three fig leaves are useless, and "Conte" has to be relied on to save the game]

Having missed two consecutive World Cups, Italy is at the lowest point in its century-old team history, but Italian football has not been without highlights in this decade. Prandelli, Conte and Mancini led their teams to achieve great results in the European Cup in a row. Inter Milan, created by Inzaghi, reached the Champions League finals twice. Italian youth teams at all levels took turns to steal the spotlight, leaving behind a brilliant record of reaching the semi-finals of the U19 European Youth Championship for three consecutive years, winning the U17 European Youth Championship, and finishing second in the U20 World Youth Championship.

Last summer, Italy was defeated by Spain and Switzerland, and the myth of the European Cup was shattered. Inter Milan left a shameful record in the last game of the Inzaghi era, and returned in a hurry after moving to the Club World Cup. The Italian National Youth Team has won team honors, but is unable to provide talents to the national team. The three fig leaves were lifted one after another, and the Italian national team naturally became a source of water and became the background for the rise of Norway's "golden generation".

Taking the Superga air disaster as a starting point, Italy gave up the technical style of play in the "Team of Turin" era and instead relied on anti-counterattack tactics to pursue efficiency, evolving into a team with the most distinctive style among the powerful. With the prevalence of the zone defense concept and the shutdown of the super center production line, Italy was forced to embark on the path of learning Spanish football, but they will always return to the familiar utilitarian football path in times of crisis.

In the 2024 European Cup, Italy could not find a forward who could score goals, and Spalletti was in trouble.

Prandelli’s experiment in technology flow started high but went low. Conte led the civilian army to defeat Belgium and Spain. Ventura was expelled from the church amid overwhelming criticism. Mancini achieved a double harvest of competitive performance and style construction in the summer of 2021. Even if Italy failed again in the subsequent World Cup preliminaries, the glory of winning the European Cup still allowed them to recognize Mancini's contribution. The Italian Football Association invited Spalletti to coach, originally hoping to continue Mancini's philosophy, but the Azzurri's disastrous defeat in Oslo made them realize that they must invite "Conte" (Gattuso) back.

[The star production line is shut down, no matter how good the coach is]

With its high attention to defensive organization and tactical details, the Azzurri can always burst out with amazing combat power in the World Series, creating glory several times in mourning. The performance of Conte's team in the 2016 European Cup demonstrated the old-school Italian spirit. The great thing about Mancini is that he brought trendy elements, which not only released the potential of many talented players, but also retained the fine tradition of using anti-counterattack style to limit opponents.

Of course, Mancini is not a magician who can do magic out of thin air, and his tactics also require high standards from the players. In the process of winning the European Cup, Italy defeated Switzerland with 3 goals. Only 3 of the 11 starting players at that time could continue to face their old rivals 3 years later (Switzerland had 7), namely Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo and Barrera. All the forward and defensive personnel were updated. When Bonucci and Chiellini faded out one after another, Chiesa and Spinazzola were destroyed by injuries, and Insigne and Verratti left the mainstream football stage, their vacancies were left unfilled, and Italy's "Beautiful Football" plan could not continue.

Since the establishment of the Golden Boy Award by Tuttosport, only one Italian has been crowned, and that was 15 years ago (Balotelli). In the past 2025, England and France each had 5 people shortlisted for the Golden Boy Award, while Italy only had 2 people shortlisted. Neither Pio Esposito nor Leoni were the main players in the club. Just when Deschamps, Tuchel and De La Fuente were worried about too many excellent players, and Haaland lamented that "Norway's generation of players is very strong", Gattuso was still worried about having no one available.

[Tactics are not everything, players are fundamental]

The Italian youth team has a brilliant record, but young players find it difficult to get ahead after entering the first team. This is mainly because the Italian youth training begins tactical training and role division too early. Young players learn to serve the whole individually very early, and their talents are suppressed and their edges are smoothed. Italian players do not have strong personal abilities to support them, so they naturally cannot compete with foreign players. Many clubs would rather accept veterans from the Premier League and La Liga than give opportunities to local young players.

In the 2024 European Cup, Italy is the country that contributes the most coaches. There are too many good coaches and too few good players..

In addition to technical shortcomings, Italian players' physical shortcomings are also obvious. The pace of modern football is getting faster and faster, and Italian players are easily injured in high-intensity games. This is also the result of the absence of youth training.

After coming to Como, Fabregas tried to rely on local players to form a team, but ultimately gave up because he could not find enough good players.

Chiesa Jr. and Spinazzola returned to mediocrity after recovering from injuries. Scamacca, Udoki, Calafioli, Scalvini and Leoni all suffered serious injuries that could destroy their careers at a young age. Spalletti invented the forwardless formation and the "wolf pack tactic" in his early years, and later had overseas coaching experience. He also took an unusual path when leading Naples to the top of Serie A. These experiences made him very confident, but a terrible wave of injuries still caused the championship coach to fall from the altar.

Suffering two serious injuries at a young age, Calafiore's career prospects are worrying.

In the knockout stage of the 2024 European Cup, Italy's injured players can piece together a starting lineup that is stronger than the healthy players. This situation also exists during this World Cup preliminaries. When visiting Oslo in the first round, Locatelli, Calafiore, Buongiorno and Acerbi were injured at the same time, leaving the Italian defense open and a 3-goal defeat directly booking a place in the play-offs.

Based on the successful experience of Spain, Prandelli, Mancini and Spalletti all hope to use possession tactics to maximize their strengths and avoid weaknesses, give full play to the talents of Italian players in passing and coordination, and deal with opponents through exquisite design of lines and runs. In the 2024 European Cup, Italy created a miracle of 829 passes in a single game when facing Albania. Facing the pressure from Spain, it still insisted on going on the ground. However, because there was no high-level center to complete the finishing task, the pressure eventually shifted to the defense line.

Gattuso did not insist on the four-back formation when defeating Israel and Estonia, and the five-back defense was destroyed by Haaland.

During the European Cup, Italy's defense was "uncertain", and the swing between three central defenders and four defenders continued until the early stages of the World Cup preliminaries. After Gattuso took office, Italy's formation and style of play stabilized. Unfortunately, he swayed again when facing strong opponents, and the five-back defense collapsed under the impact of Haaland and Nousa.

[If you find the right leader, you can still have fun in the World Cup]

Throughout the history of the Azzurri, every success is a decision made in the face of external doubts, and the situation is reversed amidst the common hatred and courageous struggle. The team's lower limit is determined by the strength of the cards, and the upper limit is in the hands of the "leader".

Chiellini and Bonucci faded out, Italy lost the backers of tactical experiments, and entered a "power vacuum period."

Before Italy’s home game against Norway, the famous player Alessandro Nesta said in an interview, “The national team does not need complex tactics. We are together for only a few days. When we came back from the club two months later, we had forgotten everything.” The picture painted by Prandelli is fascinating, but Conte’s philosophy is the team’s best way of survival. Even in the twilight years of his career when he followed Mancini to win the European Cup, Chiellini and others still remember the Italian tradition.

Gattuso's temperament is similar to Conte's, and Italian football is going back again.

When the "Xuanming two old men" withdraw, there is no player in the Italian team who can take on the big responsibility, and the coach needs to give full play to his functional advantages and become the core of the team. Conte "drove players like blind men" at Euro 2016, and now Gattuso has the ability to replicate this successful path. Before losing to Norway at home, Italy maintained a winning record during Gennaro Gattuso's tenure. This tragedy may end the Azzurri's tactical swing, which will be helpful for their next campaign in the play-offs.

Although the road to the play-offs from 16 to 4 is rugged, there are not many opponents that can really worry Italy. If they can make it through this play-offs steadily, Italy will hopefully be able to do well in the World Cup like the Azzurri who were invincible after breaking out of the group in those years.