Sunday 011 European League Portugal VS Spain event analysis forecast

1. Game background and fighting spirit

Nation of the event: European League A League final (neutral position), held at the Allianz Stadium in Munich on June 9th.

Historical significance

Portugal: The first European League champion (2019), if you win the championship, you will become the first team to win the cup twice.

Spain: It reached the final for three consecutive times, defeated Croatia in the last penalty kick and won the championship, and strived to defend its title.

Core showdown: 40-year-old Ronaldo (137 goals in the national team) VS 18-year-old Yamal (making 43 goals in 61 games this season), symbolizing the confrontation between the old and new generations.

2. Comparison of the recent state of the two sides with offense and defense

Portugal: Resilience but with defensive problems

Road to promotion: reverse Germany 2-1 in the semi-finals, eliminate Denmark in overtime in the quarterfinals, and UEFA Nations League 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 9 games.

Offensive highlights: Ronaldo scored key balls in the last two games, and the front line relies on his finishing ability + wide-range explosive points (Kon Saisan averaged 3 shots per game).

Defensive loophole: Conceding goals in 5 consecutive games, the high-level defense line is slow to catch up, and it is easy to be targeted by speed-based counterattacks.

Spain: Offensive frenzy but defense line collapsed

Unbeaten myth: 19 consecutive games unbeaten (14 wins and 5 draws), France showed its terrifying firepower 5-4 in the semi-finals.

Front domination: Yamal double hits in the semifinals, Williams blasted the wing (3.5 breakthroughs per game), and midfielder Pedri passed a success rate of 92%.

Fatal weakness: Average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 games, the central defender combination turned slowly + set balls weak air defense.

3. Lineup and tactical game

1. Portugal: Anti-reverse + edge-middle combination

Formation: 3-4-3 to switch 3-2-5, Martinez emphasized rapid conversion, Vitinia's midfield dispatch, and Ronaldo's restraint in the penalty area.

Key player

Royce: End of the penalty area + spiritual leader.

B fee: No. 1 in the key pass league, penalty for set ball.

Hidden danger: Fullback Cancelo has left a blank, and it is difficult to fight against the Spanish winger.

2. Spain: ball control and suppression + wing blast

formation: 4-2-3-1, Dela Fuent pursues pass-control and infiltration, Williams + Yamal flew together.

Key player

Yamar: The best king + pass and shoot.

Pedri: Midfield metronome.

Hidden danger: The central defender is slow to chase back (Laporte is absent), and his ability to prevent counterattack is weak.

4. Historical confrontation and psychological balance

draw curse: 5 draws in the last 6 confrontations, the only victory or defeat is the 1-0 victory for the European League Spain in 2022.

Contest mentality: Portugal has significantly reversed the genetics (reversed Germany in the semi-finals); Spain is good at controlling the rhythm but has a weak spot against the wind (conceding the ball first in the last 5 games only 1 win).

5. Key factors for victory and loss

Wing duel: Williams (Spain) vs. Cancelo (Portugal): Speed ​​shock determines the balance between offense and defense.

Setting ball offense and defense: Portugal's header advantage (Dias's success rate is 78%) VS Spain's air defense loophole (nearly 40% of the conceded goals come from set balls).

At the beginning of the game: Spain averaged a leading position in the last six games and half games. If it scored early, it could suppress Portugal; on the contrary, if Portugal scored the first goal, it might activate the Spanish draw against the wind.

6. Results prediction

1. Win-loss tendency

The highest probability of draw (45%): historical draw inertia + defensive loopholes between the two sides explode, and it is difficult to distinguish the winner in the regular time.

Spain's winning rate (35%): offensive firepower suppression + ball control advantage, with great potential for overtime or penalty kicks.

Portuguese winning rate (20%): Ronaldo needs key goals + limit Spanish side, the probability is relatively low.

2. Score prediction

regular time

1-1 (first choice): Both sides are efficient in offense but give each other opportunities in defense, continuing the tradition of draw.

2-2 (defense big ball draw): Both defense lines collapsed in the offensive battle.

Score wins and loses scenario

Spain 2-1: Yamal wins, Portugal makes a mistake in defense.

Portugal 1-0: Ronaldo's set-piece hit was fatal, and Spain was weak in attacking.