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Revealing the password for football wins and losses: From the index to the schedule, you can also become a prediction expert if you understand these!

7:48am, 3 July 2025【Football】

Good afternoon everyone. Inter Milan, who was analyzed in detail yesterday, failed. He was optimistic that Inter Milan won a small goal, but he actually lost directly! I laughed at me

However, I took the Manchester City draw with a brief analysis yesterday. I felt that it was tied at first sight! I also simulated the script, tied overtime and advanced with a small victory! Unexpectedly, he went home too? ? How much does Inter Milan and Manchester City charge? So shameless? I don't believe it at all. The top teams that have been ranked among the top five leagues all year round have fallen to the top 16...

The end of yesterday's article, but this also confirms that the ball is 'yuan' and everything is possible! OK, let’s not say much, and still have popular science! Friends who like it, please follow and like it. If you have any suggestions, please leave a message in the comment section below! Thank you for your attention and wish you a red list every day! Receive rice every day! !

1. The basics of football analysis: Understand "basics" and "index surface"

If you want to play football, you must first master two cores - fundamental analysis and index analysis.

1. Fundamentals: The "internal logic" of football

fundamentals are the foundation of analyzing the game, including team strength, recent status, player injury, fighting spirit, tactical style, etc.

Strength and status: The comparison of strength and weakness is the basis. For example, Premier League giant Manchester City plays against relegation Norwich. Even though Manchester City has been in a sluggish state recently, the gap in historical confrontations and lineup strength still gives it an absolute advantage.

Injury and Lineup: The absence of core players may subvert the situation. Last season, when Real Madrid's main defender Ramos was injured, frequent loopholes in defense, resulting in many draws and even losses.

Fighting intention and motivation: Targets such as championship, relegation, and cup qualifications directly affect the team's attitude. If the last round of the Premier League, the mid-range team may have no desires, while the relegation team will fight for points with all their might.

Tactical style: Liverpool has a big opening and closing against Wolves. The former has a clear advantage in possession of the ball, while the latter is good at counterattacking and sneak attacks. Tactical hedging often determines the rhythm of the game.

2. Index: The game behind the numbers

index (European odds and Asian handicap) is a quantitative prediction of the game results by gambling institutions. To understand the index, you need to master two major systems:

European odds (European index): The odds are presented with the three options of winning, draw and losing, reflecting the agency's probability judgment of the results. For example, the home win odds of 1.50 mean that the institution believes that the home team's winning rate is about 66%.

Asian Handicap (Asian Index): Balanced bets by handicap, such as "Home Team-1 Goal" means that the home team needs to win by 2 goals. Changes in the depth and water level of the market are the key.

2. In-depth analysis of the Eurasian index: lure or stop?

The key to understanding the index is to identify "trap" and "blocking" - how institutions guide betting by adjusting the market.

Case 1: Dortmund vs Lille (2025 Champions League)

Prematch Index: In the initial stage, Dortmund gave 0.75 goals at home, and rose to 1 goal in the future, and the water level continued to rise.

Analysis:

Fundamentals: Although Dortmund has the advantage in strength, his management has been in a turbulent position and lost his lineup, and his condition is sluggish.

Index changes: The initial concession is relatively high (reasonably 0.5 goals), and the market is forced to rise in the future, creating the popularity of "Domes and Special Forces must win".

Popularity Index: Dodeuts' popularity is as high as 66%, far exceeding the risk line.

Conclusion: Institutions attract Dortmund bets through "high pull-up and high turn", which actually implies that it is difficult to win. In the end, Lille tied away, confirming the judgment of luring the game.

Case 2: Real Madrid VS Atletico Madrid (Madrid derby)

Prematch Index: Real Madrid gave 0.5 goals at home, and remained stable in the future.

Analysis:

Fundamentals: Real Madrid has a slightly better strength and a clear home-court advantage. The two sides have many draws in recent years.

Index is reasonable: 0.5 goals are in line with the difference in strength between the two teams, the water level does not fluctuate significantly, and the popularity is dispersed (Real Madrid 56%).

Conclusion: The index is not induced, the tendency to win and lose is dominated by strength, and Real Madrid eventually won a small victory.

Identification rules for temptation and discrepancy:

Identification: The handicap is higher than a reasonable value (such as strong teams give too much), the market will rise + high water in the future, attract bets;

hindrance: The handicap is lower than a reasonable value (such as strong teams give not enough discrepancy), the market will precipitate, reduce the compensation pressure, and imply the real tendency.

3. Off-court factors: injury, fighting spirit, and schedule affect the game?

Although the off-field factors are invisible, they often become the fuse of "unpopularity".

1. Injury: The chain reaction of core missing

Case: In a key game of Paris Saint-Germain in 2024, Messi was absent due to injury, Paris was in chaos on the offensive end, and the game was originally favored lost to the midfield team 0-1. Data shows that when Messi was present, Paris's goal conversion rate increased by 30%.

Influence mechanism: The absence of key players (such as offensive core, goalkeeper) will directly weaken tactical execution and psychological stability.

2. Fighting intention: different goals and great morale

Case: "Taclysdiction" in the last round of the Premier League

At the end of the season, Manchester City, who has won the championship, played against the relegation team Burnley. Manchester City had no intention of fighting in the rotation lineup, and Burnley tried his best to grab the points and finally drew 2-2. The difference in fighting intentions leads to the strong team "releasing the water".

3. Schedule: Physical fitness allocation and psychological fatigue

Case: During the intensive schedule of Real Madrid

2025 Champions League, Real Madrid played three games in one week (League + Cup + Champions League), and the main players were physically overdrawn. Although he had the advantage in the game against Atletico Madrid, he collapsed in the second half and eventually lost 1-2.

Rule: 2-3 days intervals can easily lead to a strong team upset, while 6-8 days intervals return to normal (see web page 17 data for details).

4. Practical case: Comprehensive analysis of a game

Taking Bruges vs. Villa (2025 Champions League) as an example, combined with all elements in-depth analysis:

Pre-match background:

Bruges performed well before the group stage and had strong home court; Villa is stronger but lacks experience in the Champions League.

Fundamentals: Villa's injury list includes the main midfielder, and all the main players in Bruges are healthy.

Index: Villa gave 0 goals away from home in the initial market, and rose to 0.25 goals in the future, with large fluctuations in the water level.

Fighting intention: Bruges needs to maintain points to advance, Villa has locked in the top spot in the group and may be rotated.

Schedule: Villa has two games in one week, and the road is exhausted.

Analysis steps:

Strength comparison: Villa has the advantage, but injury weakens his strength;

Index logic: Initial display is weak (0 goals), the market rise in the future creates Bruges' popularity, but actually covers Villa;

Off-game factors: Villa's physical strength disadvantage + lack of fighting intention, Bruges' home game + strong fighting intention;

Conclusion: Bruges' probability of unbeaten is high, and it may be a draw or a small victory.

Results: Bruges won 1-0, verify and analyze.

5. Advanced skills: Dynamic tracking and mentality management

Football analysis is not static, and needs to be adjusted dynamically:

Information update: Pay attention to the latest injury and starting list 24 hours before the game;

Odds fluctuations: Index changes (such as sharp drops on the spot) may reflect sudden factors;

Mindset management: Avoid "emotional betting", set a stop loss line, and look at unpopularity rationally.

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