The Asian Cup winning probability forecast: 15% in Japan! Australia s unique rating, how much is the Chinese team?

The 2025 Men's Basketball Team Asian Cup has entered the countdown, the Chinese men's basketball team has arrived in Saudi Arabia, and Guo Shiqiang is racing against time to lead the team to train. With Australia and other teams announced the roster, many fans will have questions, what is the probability of winning the Chinese men's basketball team in this Asian Cup? Let’s talk together today.

We analyze the Asian Cup promotion rules, grouping and strength of each team. The first to rank fourth is the New Zealand Men's Basketball Team, with a 10% chance of winning the championship. The New Zealand men's basketball team ranks 22nd in the world and ranks third in Asia. Judging from the group situation, the New Zealand men's basketball team has a 50% chance of entering the finals. In the previous Unity Cup event, the New Zealand Men's Basketball Team defeated the Montenegro Men's Basketball Team 89-82, and this game can see the true strength of the New Zealand Men's Basketball Team.

The third place is that the Japanese men's basketball team has a probability of winning the championship, ranking 21st in the World Cup and second in Asia. Considering that the Japanese men's basketball team missed core guard Yuki Kawamura, forward player Yuta Watanabe and inside player Hachimura, the strength of the Japanese men's basketball team has dropped sharply. In addition, the Chinese men's basketball team defeated the Japanese men's basketball team by 42 points in the warm-up match six months ago, which shows that the Japanese men's basketball team is average without the support of NBA players, and its combat effectiveness can only be considered second-rate in Asia. The Japanese men's basketball team is also undergoing succession from the old and new teams. This team is not well grouped, and it is likely that New Zealand will be eliminated halfway. The Australian men's basketball team ranked first must be the defending champion of the last Asian Cup. As the Australian men's basketball team, the probability of defending the title is as high as 45%. Not exceeding 50% may surprise many fans. After all, the Australian men's basketball team ranks 7th in the world and Asia firmly ranks first. Because, this team announced the 12-man roster, with an average age of only 23 years old, which shows that the Australian men's basketball team is more here to train, and there are no active NBA players in the team. Sending the second team to play the game gives other opponents the chance to win the championship. If Australia sends the real team, the probability of this team winning the Asian Cup can soar to 90%.

Finally, I personally believe that the Chinese men's basketball team, ranked 30th in the world and fourth in Asia, has a 30% chance of winning the championship in this Asian Cup, and the team led by Guo Shiqiang can rank second in the strength list. First of all, the Chinese men's basketball team fell into Group C, and our opponents were Saudi Arabia, Jordan and India. According to the strong strength of the Chinese men's basketball team, it is not a problem for Guo Shiqiang to win three consecutive victories to advance to the quarterfinals.

In the knockout round, we are likely to encounter Lebanon. In the last Asian Cup knockout round, we regretted losing to Lebanon. The reason for the loss was that we could not defend Alaki. Therefore, Guo Shiqiang will definitely be prepared this time. If we can reach the semi-finals, we will most likely meet the Australian men's basketball team in the semi-finals, and we will most likely meet Japan or New Zealand in the finals.

Therefore, the biggest problem for the Chinese team in this event is the quarter-finals and semi-finals. We must get the first place in the group stage to advance, so that we can avoid playing in the playoffs and retain sufficient physical fitness. In this game, the core inside line of the Chinese men's basketball team, Zhou Qi, was injured and absent, Yang Hansen was absent, the forward line Zeng Fanbo and Zhang Zhenlin were also absent, and the back line Zhao Jiwei and Cui Yongxi were also absent, so the core framework of the Chinese men's basketball team became Zhao Rui and Hu Jinqiu, and the overall strength must be reduced by 20%.

However, in the past four warm-up matches, the Chinese men's basketball team has shown a good competitive state. Our three-point shooting percentage exceeds 40% and free throw shooting percentage exceeds 90%. The only disadvantage is that there are too many mistakes. If the head coach Guo Shiqiang can solve this shortcoming and put the small ball system to the extreme, it is not impossible for the Chinese men's basketball team to win the Asian Cup championship again after 10 years.